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While space exploration and the NASA budget are not headline news items in the age of Donald Trump and coronavirus, the 2020 election will have profound implications on America’s future in space and our return to the Moon. NASA has always been at the whim of sharp changes in presidential priorities, and there is even more uncertainty about its future than usual heading into 2021.

As an incumbent, Donald Trump’s vision for America’s role in space is (relatively) well known, favoring a robust, American-led effort to return to the Moon by 2024. However Joe Biden, his presumptive November challenger, has a much more limited public stance on space exploration. This makes projecting how Biden would approach space exploration as President difficult, but there are instructive examples from his past that offer clues. A number of highly uncertain variables exist if Biden wins, but there is an opportunity to articulate a bi-partisan, inclusive vision for space exploration regardless of the outcome this November.

Biden’s Track Record on Space (or lack thereof)

Joe Biden has an extensive career in public service, first winning a Senate seat in 1972 (serving until 2008), running for President 3 times (1988, 2008, 2020), and serving as Vice President from 2008-2016. Yet despite a career spanning almost 50 years, Biden has expressed little in the way of substantive opinions on NASA and the future of American space exploration.

There are sporadic, mostly tenuous connections between Biden and space policy before 2008. He is listed as a sponsor or cosponsor of 6 space-related pieces of legislation during his tenure in Congress. There were 2 unanimously adopted resolutions commemorating the Challenger and Columbia disasters, two different amendments prohibiting anti-satellite tests and establishing an anti-satellite testing moratorium in the 1985-86 Congress (neither of which passed), an amendment to allow special payments to Russia for ISS related work in 2007-08 (that did not pass), and the NASA 50th Anniversary Commemorative Coin Act in 2007-08 (which passed). That is 3 universally adopted amendments, 2 unsuccessful amendments opposing anti-satellite tests, and a logistical bill to enable ISS payments to Russia (that wasn’t passed). There is not much more to Biden’s record on space policy before 2008.

In 2008, Biden unsuccessfully ran for President, but did manage to get on the record a handful of times regarding space policy. He told Nature magazine he “wants to make China a full partner in space exploration, rather than a frustrated new entrant that had to catch up to the United States.” One post-debate summary referenced the fact that “Biden professed his support for robotic programs, and when asked about human spaceflight, said, “With clear leadership we can do anything, good luck.”

After dropping out and being selected as the Vice Presidential candidate alongside Barack Obama, Biden managed to get on the record a handful of times on space policy. He criticized the gap between the Shuttle retirement and the next generation rockets, spoke favorably regarding commercial crew proposals, and specifically focused on the job creation aspects of investing in STEM. This is assuredly an example of swing state politicking (the speech occurred in...Florida), and was one of the only times Biden addressed space policy during the 2008 campaign. The 2008 Democratic Party Platform had a single line pledging to “invest in a strong and durable vision for space exploration.”

The default option oftentimes is simply to associate Biden with Obama’s space legacy, which is mixed and polarizing within the space community. This is perhaps fair, as Biden was Obama’s Vice President, but also not the complete story, as there is very little evidence Biden was ever involved in any of Obama’s proposals or initiatives regarding space policy, and little formal record exists of Biden commenting during his 8 years as Vice President. Obama was strongly criticized for reductions in planetary science budgets and an almost universally panned Asteroid Return Mission. However he did oversee 2 extensions for the ISS, keeping it operational until at least 2024, and did oversee NASA’s move towards spurring commercial launchers like SpaceX.

This is not meant to serve as either a defense or criticism of the Obama Administration’s space policy. This is simply to illustrate the complicated nature of that legacy, which Biden was not instrumental in crafting. However, as Biden was a key member of the Administration, it is reasonable to assume he was at least somewhat aware of these decisions, and would also reference this legacy if he were to be elected President.

The Public & Congressional Context

In the absence of any substantive space policy portfolio, two external factors that could influence Biden’s space policy would be American public opinion and the policy stances of Congressional Democrats.

A spring 2019 Ipsos poll offers detailed insights into how the American public views NASA and space exploration. Key findings offer a mixed perspective for space enthusiasts, including:

• Over 75% of Americans have a positive view of NASA, and ⅔ of Americans consider space exploration to be “necessary”.
• Anywhere from 50%-75% of Americans have watched a meteor shower, eclipse, or shooting star, and 65% have watched a rocket launch live on TV.
• Only 5% of Americans consider themselves well-informed about astronomy and space exploration, roughly 20% consider themselves ‘very interested’ in space, and only ⅓ believe the benefits outweigh the costs.
• Semantics matters greatly as to how Americans perceive NASA’s budget, with question wording creating wild swings from ‘too high’ to ‘too low’.

Other public polling shows Americans prefer a more Earth-centric view of NASA’s mandate. A 2018 Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll asked voters to describe their #1 NASA priority. 43% were in favor of Earth observations related to climate change, 25% favored asteroid observation, while only 8% prioritized a manned Mars mission, and a meager 3% spoke in favor of a manned Moon mission. That poll did note that NASA is one of the few agencies to win widespread bi-partisan support.

A 2018 Pew poll found some instructive insights on how the public views NASA and space travel.

• Only 40% would be willing to travel into space, but 60% believe humans are an essential component of the space program.
• The data found virtually no significant differences in support for NASA among age, gender, or education cohorts.
• The only partisan difference appeared regarding support for NASA’s climate research, with Republicans placing much less emphasis on this priority.
• Men demonstrate greater interest in space and science related news, and are 10-15% more likely than women to support manned missions and Mars exploration.

The polling evidence points to an American public that demonstrates widespread, diverse support for NASA. Yet that support is often not intense, and priorities tend to be Earth centric rather than focused on manned exploration of the Moon and Mars. It’s important to note that this is simply a snapshot in time. American attitudes on space have fluctuated over time, and there is no reason to believe that present attitudes are set in stone.

The stance of Congressional Democrats on space policy during the Trump Presidency has evolved over time but offers some clear indications as to their priorities. Laura Forczyk with Astralytical has offered unparalleled analysis into the inner workings of Congress regarding space policy, and her work offers valuable insight as to the influence on space policy Congressional Democrats may wield.

The most recent budget cycle (before it was interrupted by COVID), revealed areas of both bipartisan agreement and potential partisan disagreement. HR 5666, the NASA Authorization Act of 2020, is largely uncontroversial and unanimously agreed upon. Public attention focused on areas of disagreement, centered largely around the administrations’ Artemis 2024 lunar return program.

HR 5666 straddles the line with voicing disapproval with certain tenets of Artemis while not provoking an open confrontation with the Administration. There is a constant theme to deprioritize lunar exploration (without cancelling the return) in favor of a more Mars centric program. To offer an extended quote from Forczyk explaining this dynamic:

“... (we found a) slight bias among key Democratic members of Congress toward sending astronauts to Mars with little support for a lunar return. Most key members of Congress preferred a Moon-to-Mars approach, as did Reps. Bill Posey (R), Brian Babin (R), and Ami Bera (D). Reps. Ed Perlmutter (D) and Eddie Bernice Johnson (D) strongly support a human mission to Mars without expressing strong support for a Moon-to-Mars approach.”

Key congressional Democrats favor a more Mars centric program, and are also more strongly in favor of an active NASA role in space and hesitant towards unrestrained growth in commercial space companies.

This beneath-the-surface disagreement boiled over in early May after NASA announced almost $1 billion in awards to 3 companies to develop the Artemis lunar landers. Representatives Johnson and Horn released a statement criticizing the awards, calling them contrary to HR 5666, although their Senate counterparts did not echo that criticism. The source of this flare up from Johnson and Horn is uncertain, although Horn has worked previously for the Space Foundation and has a record of being skeptical of commercial lunar landing systems.

How this dynamic unfolds will prove instructive as to the stance of Congressional Democrats under a potential Biden presidency. While HR 5666 is unlikely to become law, it is likely the key Members will clarify their perspectives, and NASA funding will be authorized one way or another later this year as part of a broader budget agreement.

A big picture snapshot of the electoral environment shows Democrats as favorites, but not prohibitively so, to retain their control of the House of Representatives. Representatives Johnson, Bera, Lucas, and Babin all serve in safe districts and do not face any electoral threat to re-election, so they will be in Congress in 2021. Representative Horn was a shock winner in the 2018 Democratic wave, and will be among the top targets for Republicans this fall. All major election handicappers rate her election as a Toss-up, a designation that will not change through Election Night this November. It appears most, if not all, of the House players impacting space policy will be returning next year regardless of the outcome of the Presidential race.

Public opinion is generally bipartisan and strongly pro-NASA yet rarely intense, with a bias towards more Earth centric programs. Key Congressional Democrats are more Mars-centric in their priorities, and are likely to be opposed to continuing the Artemis Moon program under a Biden Presidency.

Biden’s 2020 campaign & future in space

Joe Biden has not released a formal space policy vision to this point in the 2020 campaign. His campaign website offers numerous policy platforms, a few of which tangentially refer to NASA and space exploration. His policy agenda on American Leadership includes the priority of “keeping NATO’s military capabilities sharp, while also expanding our capacity to take on new, non-traditional threats like weaponized corruption, cyber theft, and new challenges in space and on the high seas.” His policy agenda on Climate Change refers to the data provided by NASA, but nothing further. That’s it. Indeed, the only time Biden seems to come up in 2020 commentary on space policy is how he has no space policy.

As inexplicable as it seems, Joe Biden has spent almost 50 years in the public arena and has yet to articulate his core values regarding American space policy. It seems Biden has generally warm but distant feelings towards NASA, a minor record against anti-satellite tests in the 1980s, a 2008 nod to cooperating with China in space, and a general acknowledgement of the economic impact and occasional electoral relevance of the space industry.

It is important to note the paths that aren’t being taken this November. Unlike Biden’s blank slate, Bernie Sanders would have almost certainly cancelled Artemis immediately and developed the most Earth-centric NASA program since its inception. He also viewed space policy largely through the lens of demilitarization. This echoes the call of former NASA Deputy Administrator Lori Garver, who wants NASA to de-prioritize manned missions and focus on combating climate change. Her arguments would have found an eager audience in a Sanders administration.

It’s also important to note some of the broader electoral dynamics at play surrounding Biden’s appeal within the Democratic party. While he has picked up endorsements from most Democratic officials, including former NASA Administrator Charles Bolden, Biden faces resistance from younger and more liberal voters, especially over his perceived lack of aggression in tackling climate change. How he chooses to appeal to these constituencies could impact his space policy, as he has referenced NASA when addressing climate change in the past.

Odds are there will not be a significant expansion of Biden’s space policy during the duration of the 2020 campaign, which is now dominated by the coronavirus pandemic. Any further details that emerge are most likely to be related to Biden’s climate policy. It will be important to track which former Obama space advisors are connected to the Biden campaign, as that could serve as an early clue as to which perspectives Biden is listening to as the campaign moves forward.

Bi-partisanship and a glimpse at 2021

NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine overcame significant early skepticism within quarters of the space community and has established a strong bi-partisan reputation. His work has included praise from Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and a key element of his appeal to Democrats has been his pledge that Artemis will land the 1st woman on the Moon. Eric Berger perfectly captured Bridenstine’s deft political skills in a highly-recommended piece summarizing NASA’s mad dash to the Moon by 2024. The NASA Administrator has managed to balance the White House, the NASA bureaucracy, legacy aerospace contractors, Congress, and the rising commercial space companies. He has managed to satisfy each constituency and construct a reasonable path to the Moon by 2024 on limited resources.

This future immediately comes into question if Biden wins this November. Mark Whittington recently made an eloquent argument that increasing NASA’s funding would have significant positive economic benefits in the midst of the coronavirus recession. This is an especially poignant argument for Joe Biden, as he was the Obama Administration official tasked with shepherding and overseeing the economic recovery legislation after the 2008 Great Recession. Biden has already begun early steps on building a transition team to be prepared in case he wins this November, and has expressed openness to a Republican Cabinet nominee. He was quoted saying recently “I don’t have any limitation on if someone were a Republican if they’re the best-qualified person to do it. But I’m not there yet.” Biden had long running friendships with prominent Senate Republicans including John McCain and Lindsey Graham.

One huge wildcard recently introduced into this already volatile mix was NASA’s announcement of its pursuit of the Artemis Accords, a legal agreement with ‘like-minded’ space powers regarding lunar mining. Bridenstine has articulated a far more muscular vision for NASA that is active in the national strategy apparatus than previous Administrators. Russia, China, and India have so far been excluded from the Artemis Accords and there are concerns these powers could begin to work together in forming a separate lunar legal regime from the US. Biden spent years as the Senate Chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, and has extensive connections around the world. He is known as an internationalist, and his foreign policy vision emphasizes diplomacy and strengthening democracy at home and abroad.

At this point, the critical question is how far NASA is able to proceed in negotiating the Artemis Accords with allied nations over the rest of 2020 during the COVID pandemic. There is a possibility a newly minted legal accord regarding space law that has provoked significant international consternation could come into existence just as Joe Biden is taking office. How this plays out moving forward will be simply fascinating to observe.

This makes predicting a potential President Joe Biden space policy in January of 2021 incredibly difficult. However, a few broad points would seem reasonable:

Odds are very low Biden offers much, if any, additional clarity on space policy before the November election. If any clarification is provided, it is most likely to be related to his climate policy.Biden is a creature of the Senate and a far more moderate nominee than Bernie Sanders would have been. There is a non-zero chance Biden would be open to keeping Bridenstine in his role as NASA Administrator.Congressional Democrats, especially in the House, would certainly be emboldened if Biden is victorious. They would likely seek to de-prioritize (or cancel) Artemis and lunar exploration, increasingly emphasizing climate change programming and Mars exploration. Congressional Democrats also seem responsive to the Artemis vision of placing the 1st woman on the Moon. The evolution of the Artemis Accords and the Trump Administrations broader space legal regime bears intense scrutiny. This is a sphere where Biden has extensive personal experience, and perhaps may be more inclined to offer a more expansive vision.

There is also an opportunity, regardless of which candidate wins in November, to continue some of the recent bi-partisan momentum around NASA. Bridenstine’s ability to craft a workable solution that appeals to all stakeholders serves as an effective template for NASA, regardless if he remains at the helm to execute it.

While the President does impact American space policy, the truth is much of the work of space exploration now is driven by increasingly powerful commercial players, with their own set of ambitions and programs. The space industry is forecast to grow substantial over the next decades to a $1 trillion giant, and that trend will continue more or less regardless of the outcome of the 2020 election. The path to that exciting future will be shaped in various ways by the next occupant of the White House, and in the case of Joe Biden, what exactly that means for America’s space policy is a giant black hole.